英国《金融时报》：中国民营航空飞向何处？

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英国《金融时报》 吉密欧（Jamil Anderlini）

　　当兰世立今年3月失踪时，他一手创办的、刚刚起步的民营航空公司——东星航空有限公司（East Star Airlines Co., Ltd.， 简称“东星航空”）的命运基本上就已注定。

　　短短几天内，负债累累的东星就被民航局勒令停飞。不久，该公司就进入破产清算程序。东星仅拥有10架飞机，运营国内地区航线。

　　东星高管告诉英国《金融时报》，他们认为，兰世立是被地方当局拘留了，而且现在依然在拘押之中。但他们不能确定、也不知道他会面临什么指控。该公司目前仍在清算过程之中。

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　　就在兰世立失踪的前几天，东星宣布，停止由国有旗舰航空公司中国国际航空股份有限公司（Air China Limited，简称“国航”）收购东星的相关谈判。此前该公司高管声称，他们受到了野蛮对待，包括行动被限制，电话被监听，而且地方政府官员还威胁他们。

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　　当被问及国航是否涉及东星停飞或兰世立失踪之事时，国航一位发言人表示：“中航集团是个讲诚信，依法合规的集团。自从两个月前开始与东星谈判以来，我们一直在按照国家法规推进收购一事。”

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　　东星是中国首家破产航空公司，但并非过去一年来遭遇“气流”的唯一一家民营航空公司。

　　中国首家民营航空公司奥凯航空有限公司（Okay Airways Company Limited，简称“奥凯航空”）成立于2005年。去年底，由于股东之间发生一起商业纠纷，再加上该公司主要国有燃油供应商因担心奥凯无力支付，决定停止向该公司供应燃油，奥凯被政府勒令暂时停飞。

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　　在停飞近3个月后，奥凯获准复航。但这家位于天津的航空公司后来发生了一起员工罢工事件，飞行员也参与其中。据报道，该公司现正与天津政府进行收购谈判。

　　这正是鹰联航空有限公司（United Eagle Airlines Co., Ltd.，简称“鹰联航空”）所走的道路。今年早些时候，迫于经济低迷的巨大压力，加上难以从国有银行获得贷款，鹰联航空被国有航空公司四川航空（Sichuan Airlines）收购。

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　　另外两家民营航空公司——上海吉祥航空有限公司（Juneyao Airlines Co.,Ltd.，简称“吉祥航空”）和春秋航空有限公司（Spring Airlines Company Limited，简称“春秋航空”）虽然去年摆脱了亏损，但面对有政府撑腰的国有大型航空公司的激烈竞争，它们也难以扩大业务。

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　　就连一些大型国有航空公司也曾被推向破产的边缘，尽管它们能够轻而易举地获得银行贷款，以及来自国有燃油供应商和机场等服务提供商的大力支持。

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　　2008年，中国三大国有航空公司——国航、中国东方航空股份有限公司（China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited，简称“东航”）和中国南方航空股份有限公司（China Southern Airlines Company Limited，简称“南航”）合计亏损近44亿美元，占全球全部航空公司全年亏损总额的一半以上。

　　其中大部分亏损来自判断失误的衍生品合约。2008年初，由于误认为飞机燃油价格将维持快速上涨步伐，航空公司买入了大量衍生品合约。

　　随后油价大幅下挫，航空公司被迫公布巨额亏损。

　　中国政府当时出手相救，向东航拨付逾10亿美元，南航4.4亿美元，上海航空1.5亿美元。根据政府的整合计划，上海航空股份有限公司（Shanghai Airlines Co., Ltd.，简称“上航”）即将与东航合并。

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　　国有银行也为国有航空公司送上数十亿美元廉价信贷，为包括国航在内的所有国有航空公司提供支持，而民营航空公司基本上只能自力更生，或者被政府支持的航空公司吞并。

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　　中国至少有24家国有及民营航空公司，政府明显希望整合航空业。民营航空公司是首批清除对象。

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　　政府官员和分析人士都表示，中国政府的政策并非明显有意把一大部分经济“再国有化”。但是，政府应对金融危机以及向国有企业提供巨额廉价信贷的措施，让钢铁、水泥等各个行业的民营企业步履维艰。

　　在航空业，随着小型民营企业要么破产，要么被国有航空公司收购，自2004年开始的放松监管趋势被骤然扭转。

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　　去年业绩惨淡的国有航空公司近月来有所复苏。政府宣布，今年前9个月，全行业实现利润13.3亿美元。

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　　这部分得益于国内航空客流量同比增长23.6%。

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　　但很大一部分利润则来自油价反弹，这抵消了燃油衍生品合约造成的部分损失。今年第三季度，国航实现净利润1.25亿美元，去年同期为亏损2.89亿美元。

　　诸如兰世立的东星航空这样的竞争对手的淘汰，也有利于大型国有航空公司提高利润率，在小型民营航空公司挣扎沉沦之际，它们正好可以挖人。

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　　据媒体报道，在现已破产的东星航空的1000多名员工中，已有600人被招入国航。

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　　译者/何黎 英文原文地址：http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001029945/en

帅哥

When Lan Shili disappeared in March this year the fate of East Star Airlines, his fledgling privately owned carrier, was all but sealed.

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Within days the heavily indebted East Star, which operated just 10 aircraft on regional domestic routes, was grounded by civil aviation authorities and, soon after, the company began bankruptcy and liquidation proceedings.

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East Star executives told the Financial Times they believe Mr Lan was detained by local authorities and is still in custody today, but they cannot be sure and have no idea what charges he might be facing. The company is still in the liquidation process.

Just days before Mr Lan disappeared, East Star announced it was breaking off negotiations to be acquired by Air China, the state-owned flag-carrier, after executives alleged they had been subjected to strong-arm tactics, including having their movements restricted, their phones tapped and threats issued by local government officials.

When asked at the time whether Air China was involved in the suspension of East Star or Mr Lan's disappearance, a spokesman for the airline said: “Air China is an honest and responsible company. Ever since discussions began with East Star two months ago, we have followed related laws and regulations.”

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East Star is the first Chinese airline to go bankrupt but it is not the only privately owned airline to hit turbulence in the past year.

Okay Airlines, China's first private carrier, was established in 2005 but its flights were suspended by the government late last year following a business dispute among shareholders and a decision by its main state-owned fuel supplier to cut off supply because of fears that it could not pay.

Flights were allowed to resume after a nearly three-month suspension but the Tianjin-based airline has since suffered a walk-out by a number of its staff, including pilots, and is reportedly in discussions to be acquired by the Tianjin government.

That is the route taken by United Eagle Airlines, which was acquired by state-owned competitor Sichuan Airlines earlier this year under huge pressure from the economic downturn and difficulties securing loans from state-controlled banks.

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Two other private carriers, Juneyao and Spring, were able to stay out of the red last year but have still struggled to expand their business in the face of intense competition from the state-owned giants, which have the government to back them up.

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Even some giant state carriers have been pushed to the brink of insolvency despite having easy access to bank loans, and generous support from state-owned suppliers and service providers such as airports.

Between them, China's three giant state-owned airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – lost nearly $4.4bn in 2008, accounting for more than half of the losses of all airlines in the world combined last year.

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A large chunk of those losses came as a result of misjudged derivatives contracts, which the airlines bought in early 2008 in the mistaken belief that jet fuel prices would continue their rapid rise.

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In the subsequent collapse in oil prices the airlines were forced to report huge losses.

Beijing responded by bailing them out, handing more than $1bn to China Eastern Airlines, $440m to China Southern Airlines and $150m to Shanghai Airlines, which will soon be merged with China Eastern as part of the government's consolidation plan.

State banks have also showered the state-owned airlines with billions more in easy credit, helping to prop up all of them, including Air China, while private carriers have been largely left to fend for themselves or be gobbled up by their state-backed competitors.

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With at least two dozen private and state-owned airlines in China, the government is clearly eager to consolidate the industry and the privately owned airlines are first in line to be weeded out.

Although officials and analysts say Beijing does not have an explicit intentional policy to renationalise large parts of the economy, the government's response to the financial crisis and the flood of easy credit to the state sector has left private enterprises struggling in industries from steel to cosmetics.

In the airline sector, as small private companies go bust or are acquired by the state carriers, the effect has been to reverse abruptly the trend of deregulation that began in 2004.

After last year's dismal performance, the state carriers have bounced back in recent months, with the government announcing profits of $1.33bn for the whole industry in the first nine months of 2009.

That was partly a result of a 23.6 per cent rise in domestic air passenger traffic in the first nine months from the same period a year earlier.

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But a large portion of the profits came from a rebound in the price of oil, which helped to offset some of the losses from the jet fuel derivatives contracts and helped Air China report a net profit of $125m in the third quarter, compared with a loss of $289m in the same period a year earlier.

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The elimination of competitors such as Mr Lan's East Star Airlines has also provided a boost on the margins for the big state carriers, which have been able to cannibalise the small private companies as they struggle and sink.

According to media reports, Air China has already recruited 600 of the more than 1,000 staff previously employed by the bankrupt East Star.